4 Considerations for Every Decision

There are four considerations for every decision we make.

The outcome is how things turn out.

The probability is the likelihood of an outcome.

The stakes are usually opportunity cost. For example, if you bet your entire bank balance on a venture, the stakes are high. If you risk pissing off one person in your audience who unsubscribes, then the stakes are low.

Finally, there are consequences. Every decision has consequences. If you bet the farm and lose all your money, the consequence is that you're out of business.

Where most self-improvement and new age nonsense goes wrong is an extreme focus on the possibility with little consideration for probability. Is it possible you're going to be as famous as Oprah? Maybe. Is it probable? Unlikely.

Delusional thinking masquerades as positive thinking. You're not going to use the law of attraction to create a product market fit where there isn't one. Maybe nobody wants to buy your shit.

You're going to make better and more accurate decisions by thinking in bets than you are through irrational optimism.

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